TUESDAY, MAY 06, 2008 - 12:18:00 PMFiled Under:
Race for President
Tonight could be it for the race for the Democrat nomination!
Boy, it feels like we've been here before, doesn't it?
Media pundits write stories about how tonight might decide the Democrat race for good, as well as it might not. They pontificate on how the math just doesn't work out for Hillary Clinton, even though they simultaneously know what we've known for months now: neither candidate can win enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination.
And we all know what that means: this race will be decided by the superdelegates. And there in lies the importance of today, not as much for Clinton, but for Barack Obama to prove that the Rev. Wright kerfuffle isn't causing him to hemorrhage support as some suspect.
So what can we expect tonight?
North Carolina: Currently,
Obama holds about an 8 point lead in the Real Clear Politics poll average. Over the course of the last month, only once has Clinton been shown to have a lead in any poll. And even that Insider Advantage survey had her lead within the margin of error. What Clinton has been able to accomplish is, over the course of the past weeks, is to elevate her level of support from 35.8% on April 27th to a high of 42.7% on May 5th. During the same period of time, Obama's support has fluctuated, but stayed relatively within the same range.
A Hillary win would be a major coup. And it might even be enough to start installing enough doubt in superdelegates' minds as to whether the Wright debacle has rendered Obama unelectable in the General Election. The smart money is still on an Obama win in NC. But, if the victory is only by 2-4 percentage points, and Obama's support breaks out with similar demographics as we've seen in previous primaries (e.g. almost the entirely of the African-American vote and young voters; Clinton taking blue collars, women and white voters), Obama is going to find himself on the receiving end of some very piercing questions as to whether he can successfully appeal to mainstream American and win the voters he needs to be elected in November.
Indiana: As a Hillary victory in NC would be a major coup, so would an Obama triumph in the Hoosier state. Indeed, an Obama win - even by a narrow margin - on top of a victory in North Carolina would be enough to seal the nomination for him. That's not to say that it would be enough to force Hillary out of the race. No matter what the result, it's unlikely Hillary will exit the race until all the primaries are finished. But, two Obama wins today should be enough to bring the rest of the superdelegates in line - sooner rather than later - and secure him the nod.
A rosy scenario for Obama, but one very unlikely to happen.
Currently,
Clinton holds a 5% lead over Obama in the RCP average. over the course of the past month, Obama has been shown to lead in a handful of polls. Between April 24th and April 28th he was actually able to maintain a lead over Clinton in the polls which has since dissipated. One has to go back to mid April to find a poll showing Obama with a lead outside the margin of error.
An interesting side note: the only recent polls showing Obama leading have all been produced by Zogby. Zogby is also the producer of the
one North Carolina poll showing Obama with a monstrous 14 point lead. Not that this would be the first time that Zogby's polling methodology and accuracy has been brought into question.
Expect a Hillary victory in Indiana.
Here are the main-stream media previews of tonight's contests:Five things to look for in Indiana -
Politico... and in North Carolina -
PoliticoTwo Candidates, Two States and One Big Day -
Washington PostTouch-screen machines, extra poll workers ready for high turnout -
Indianapolis StarTime to vote, and wait -
Raleigh/Durham News & ObserverInd., N.C. Contests Unlikely to Resolve Race -
ABCDespite Last-Minute Clinton, Obama Push, Results Not Expected to Be Decisive -
ABCVoters Flock To Polls In Indiana, N.C. -
CBSClinton, Obama Spar on Eve of Crucial Primaries -
Fox NewsIndiana and North Carolina -- the final round? -
CNNWhat to Watch For: Indiana, North Carolina Edition -
New York TimesClinton fate hangs in the balance -
PoliticoBill Clinton takes his 'Bubba Tour' to small town, U.S.A. -
Chicago TribuneBarack Obama is pushing a regular-guy image -
Los Angeles TimesWill Exams Cost Obama Student Votes? -
Wall Street JournalTonight's results will be here:North CarolinaIndianaLet us know your thoughts on what tonight's results will bring by voting in our
reader opinion poll to your right.
Updates to follow as developments warrant...
UPDATE: 5:30pmDrudge is reporting that early reports have Barack big of Hillary:
HILLARY'S 'DOUBLE DREAM' DASHED: EXITS SHOW EASY OBAMA WIN IN NC
Drudge also have this story from earlier today indicating that the Clinton camp fears the same big double digit loss in NC.
Read it here.
UPDATE: 5:50pmI'm sure the Obama campaign is going to consider this another bit of "political trivia" and just another distraction, but I'm pretty sure it'll upset a large number of people. Behold unrepentant domestic terrorist and Obama friend Bill Ayers from a
Chicago Magazine article from August 2001...standing on an American flag:
UPDATE: 6:30pmBarack Obama has won the North Carolina primary. Called by Fox News Channel.
Indiana hasn't been called yet, but here's how it stands with 17% reporting:
Clinton - 107,280 - 57%
Obama - 81,285 - 43%
UPDATE: 6:50pmEarly IN, NC exit poll highlightsEXIT POLL: Black Voters Lift Obama to N.C. VictoryUPDATE: 7:05pm38% reporting in Indiana:
Clinton - 234,179 - 56%
Obama - 182,482 - 44%
UPDATE: 7:20pmCBS News has called Indiana for Hillary ClintonUPDATE: 7:40pm55% reporting in Indiana:
Clinton - 357,401 - 54% - 25 delegates
Obama - 303,408 - 46% - 20 delegates
UPDATE: 8:10pm68% reporting in Indiana. Makes you really start to wonder just what the majority of networks are waiting to see before they make this call...
Clinton - 443,210 - 53% - 31 delegates
Obama - 393,155 - 47% - 24 delegates
UPDATE: 8:55pmThe holdup in calling Indiana? Lake County. Currently 0% reporting. As it stands now, with 79% reporting:
Clinton - 513,881 - 52% - 32 delegates
Obama - 478,077 - 48% - 28 delegates
UPDATE: 10:20pmNow 87% reporting in Indiana:
Clinton - 565,296 - 52% - 35 delegates
Obama - 524,903 - 48% - 29 delegates
With only 13% left to report and Clinton with approximately a 40,000 vote lead, it's HIGHLY unlikely Obama would perform well enough in the remaining precincts to make up that deficit.
When you fact in this disappointing small margin of victory for Hillary in Indiana and the hosing she took in North Carolina, you'd have to consider tonight a major victory for Barack Obama.
Is this enough to put the final nail in Hillary's coffin? Voice your opinion in our
reader poll above and to your right.
UPDATE: 11:00pmSpoke too soon?
Clinton - 588,106 - 51% - 35 delegates
Obama - 567,149 - 49% - 31 delegates
Clinton's margin is now down to about 21,000. That sound you just heard was the case of Pepto Bismol being ripped open by the Clinton campaign. And CBS News, who's already called the state for Clinton.
Stay tuned...
UPDATE: 11:30pmCloser still...
Clinton - 606,497 - 51% - 35 delegates
Obama - 589,888 - 49% - 31 delegates
Down to about 17,000 votes.
Gary, IN mayor Rudy Clay is
predicting a possible huge Obama upset:
"Let me tell you, when all the votes are counted, when Gary comes in, I think you're looking at something for the world to see," Clay, an Obama supporter, said in a telephone interview from Obama's Gary headquarters. "I don't know what the numbers are yet, but Gary has absolutely produced in large numbers for Obama here."
Clay said the results were late coming in from Lake County because of the large numbers of absentee ballots that had to be counted -- about 11,000. Under local practice, all of the cartridges from voting machines in Gary and nearby East Chicago are first collected at the local airport before being driven to the county headquarters to be tallied with the results from the rest of the county, he said. He said there were no major technical problems holding up the count.
"It takes a little time. We want to be sure that every vote is counted fair and right," he said. "I just talked to the director out there and they are working like junkyard dogs to get that done as soon as possible. They are taking some time but I told them to do it right. That's what taking the time."
UPDATE: 11:40pmFrom
Drudge:
Hillary plans to huddle with undecided super delegates tomorrow; gauging if she can go on... Developing...
UPDATE 11:55pmLake Co, IN authorities are reporting that they will be withholding about 6,000 votes from being counted tonight. They will be counted tomorrow morning. No word as of yet as to why.
UPDATE 12:11amFox News & CNN have called Indiana for Hillary Clinton
Clinton - 637,389 - 51%
Obama - 615,370 - 49%
Fox is indicating 100% reporting. Not sure how that comports with the 6000 votes that are supposedly being held over for counting tomorrow. We'll sort it out in the morning...
Race for President:
Last night at ElectIL:
