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Race for Congress
For a long time, the American people have exhibited what in inside-baseball circles is known as "Fenno's Paradox", named after political scientist Richard Fenno. Fenno observed in his research that the American people, as a whole, generally disapproved of Congress but conversely love the Congressman representing their home district. This "they're a dirty rat, but they're my dirty rat" sentiment seems to be dissipating, as we saw in 2006's flip of control from the GOP to the Democrats in the House. The resignation of the man dethroned in that power flip, former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, from his Congressional seat has made the condensed battle to replace him for the short-term a focus of national attention. If it holds true the people hate Congress, but love their Congressman, then it's no surprise to see that the power wielded in the role of Speaker of the House buoyed support for Dennis Hastert for numerous years. Since his initial election to the seat in 1986, Hasert saw his share of the general electorate vote balloon to as high as nearly 75% once he became Speaker. His lowest percentage of the vote was just shade below 60%. That was last year, as Republicans - especially Hastert - reaped the worldwind of public opinion over the Duke Cunningham, Jack Abramoff and Mark Foley scandals. Tomorrow, voters in the 14th district will go to the polls to choose between Democrat Bill Foster and Republican Jim Oberweis to fill the remainder of Hastert's term and, in the conventional wisdom, give the winner a leg-up in the rematch to fill the seat for a full term in November. And, it looks as if the voters might have finally shaken free from Fenno's Paradox overriding a national anti-incumbent surge. This is a race that has gotten rather muddy, rather fast. Not surprising with the shorted month of campaign time between the primary (Feb. 5th) and the Special Election (Mar. 8th). Let's cut right to the heart of the indictments made by each candidate. Foster, Oberweis charges, is a tax-and-spend liberal who wants to raise your taxes by letting the Bush tax-cuts expire: Oberweis, according to Foster, is a Bushian disciple who schemes to privatize Social Security, stick it to the elderly, and boasts radically frightening ideas to "fix" the health care crisis: Foster is also hitting Oberweis hard with the Iraq issue: And piled on top of this mountain of campaign hyperbole are mysterious race-mongering mailings, complaints over advertising, lawsuits over advertising and underground rumblings of messy divorce records for Foster. Even the Chicago Sun-Times and the Chicago Tribune are adding to the confusion. The usually fairly conservative Tribune had this to say in endorsing Bill Foster: This page is closer to Oberweis than Foster on several economic and foreign policy issues. But we watched Oberweis in his races for the U.S. Senate in 2002 and 2004, and for governor in 2006. We've watched this race for Congress. His campaign style has consistently been nasty, smug, condescending ... and dishonest. And the self-styled "progressive" Sun-Times had this to say in endorsing Oberweis: We see the irony in this endorsement. The Sun-Times in recent months has made a point of returning to its political roots, speaking with a more progressive editorial voice than our competitor, the conservative Chicago Tribune. Yet now we find ourselves backing Oberweis, a rock-ribbed Republican, while the Tribune sides with Foster. Like all leaders, Oberweis has a point of view, which he argues forcefully and effectively. Polls produced recently by the Oberweis camp, Foster camp and Survey USA showed a tight race with Foster ahead of his GOP counterpart Oberweis in two of the three. But this is a tough contest to poll. The special election, especially with the unconventional Saturday date, means the winner will be entirely determined by who actually turns out. On this ground, the edge would have to go to Oberweis. Republicans should be more tuned in to news of former Speaker Hastert, and thus likely more aware of his resignation and the subsequent special election to replace him. But a more interesting storyline is how the Obama factor might face a litmus test of it's strength as the voters go to the polls tomorrow. Foster is currently running this ad, an on-screen endorsement from Barack Obama: For a candidate whose bid for the White House has drawn allusions to Messianism, we shall now see if the laying on of hands by the man seemingly above the fray of partisan politics - at least until he has to unload on Hillary Clinton - has the power to help propel a Democrat into Congress in what has historically been a Republican bastion. Filed Under: Race for Congress E-mail this article to a friend | Printer friendly format |
Countdown to Election Day
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